How effective scenario planning enables responsiveness and flexibility
If you’ve been following the news lately, you’ve heard about the new administration’s attacks on funding and legitimacy for the nonprofit sector -- and the immediate response from many organizations.
While these attacks have been disheartening, what has been inspiring and encouraging has been the rapid response of the Democracy Forward legal team, representing the National Council of Nonprofits (NCN), American Public Health Association (APHA) and SAGE - Advocacy & Services for LGBTQ Elders:
Within hours of an Executive Order that would have cut off federal funding for critical services such as housing, public health, education and support for small businesses, Democracy Forward filed a lawsuit and won an injunction against this Executive Order, so that this illegal funding cut off did not take place.
These people should be wearing blue capes!
But seriously, there is no doubt that since the election in November, Democracy Forward had been doing scenario planning. In other words, leaders did not just sit there and say, “Hmmm, a new administration is coming into office, wonder what’s going to happen? Let’s wait and see!”
No.
Leaders looked at Project 2025, the blueprint supported by the Heritage Foundation released far in advance of the election season that has been effectively utilized so far by the Trump Administration, and created possible scenarios of what could take place starting on January 21, 2025. Then they made plans for what they would need to do - in terms of staffing and funding - to respond to possible scenarios. The result was that when the Executive Orders were announced, Democracy Forward was ready to take quick actions that have created dignity and justice for millions of people.
This is the value of scenario planning.
Most of us do some very informal “scenario planning” all of the time. It’s about considering what might happen and then making a plan to address it:
“If there’s rain in the forecast, I’ll bring my umbrella.”
“If the Farmer’s Market sells apples, we’ll make an apple pie.”
Nonprofit scenario planning is more complicated.
Organizing a whole team around different possible futures is more complicated than deciding to bring your umbrella. A few key steps:
Scenario planning generally happens in an environment of uncertainty. That’s why many nonprofit leaders are talking about scenario planning right now.
Similar to strategic planning, the first step is to consider who needs to be in the room doing the planning.
The next step is to come up with a few scenarios. For example:
A. Our federal funding (30% of our budget) is unchanged and the current administration supports our work and values
B. Our federal funding (30% of our budget) decreases significantly and the current administration is hostile to our work and values
Once you have your scenarios, the next step is to come together and discuss: If scenario B happens, what would we do?
Are there other funding sources we can draw on?
What do we want to communicate to staff, donors, clients, and our community?
Are there certain services we will prioritize?
Who can we partner with so that our community and work are strengthened?
What support might our staff members need amidst these challenges?
Scenario planning can feel emotional
We acknowledge that these conversations may feel emotional and challenging. It doesn’t feel “good” to imagine a future of struggle and challenge. On the other hand, it really doesn’t feel good to arrive at that future and have no idea what to do!
Scenario planning is energizing
Often, nonprofit leaders are anxious about scenario planning or strategic planning. They’re worried that there will be a lot of conflict, people won’t listen to one another, or people will feel worse at the end of the planning meeting.
Our experience leading many planning processes is that when these processes are well-facilitated with clear structure and outcomes, participants are energized at the end. They have had the experience of listening to one another, being heard by others, and are appreciative of the contributions that each group member has made.
Do Now: Create a Plan, then Shout it out!
We’re living in a moment where so much that is good in our communities and in the United States is under attack.
As we discussed at the beginning of this post, “they” (the billionaire bullies) have come for the nonprofit sector…as well as Medicaid, healthcare, food banks and vaccines.
To resist that is to come together with others to amplify the values and community we want to see in the world.
To resist that is to speak LOUDLY about how we affirm a joyous, constructive world in which people of all races have what they need to thrive, in which people of all backgrounds, abilities, genders, sexual orientations, and all of the other components in our magic elixir are celebrated and affirmed. A peaceful world in which we show care and love towards all people in our communities.
So once you know how you’re going forward, celebrate and amplify that. That is your leadership. Others out there, who may be feeling scared and anxious, need to know that you see a way forward - together.
Community is one of our greatest strengths.
As we continue to see the headlines and feel the pressure, it’s easy to feel overwhelm and despair. Many of us were already facing routine struggles before this new administration. We need to maneuver through uncertain environments, some of which we haven’t seen before. With some foresight, we can gather information available and scenario plan to explore possible outcomes. Coming together, we discover a way forward, and activate our voices towards the future we envision.